Global Commodity Prices Rise Again

Commodity Prices in December 2017 Global Commodity Prices Rise Again

14.12.2017Editor: Janina Seit

World commodity prices rose by 7.4 % in November 2017. As a result of the stronger euro, the increase in domestic currency was slightly lower at 6.2 %. This was mainly due to higher energy and metal prices. The experts of Industriebank IKB published the charts in this picture gallery for a detailed quarterly overview.

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The experts at Industriebank IKB expect the Dollar-Euro exchange rate to move slightly above $ 1.15 during the first quarter of 2018.

The charts in this picture gallery show the developments of individual raw materials. The IKB experts explicitly point out that the price developments for metallic raw materials, other alloys and types of plastics may differ. In addition, the industrial bank observes major regional price deviations for some types of commodities.

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World crude steel production: By the end of October 2017, world crude steel production had risen by 5.6 %. Growth was somewhat weaker in Europe (3.7 %) and North America (4.1 %). Experts expect an increase of over 4 % in 2017. This is mainly due to a base effect in China where production in illegal steel mills has been shut down and demand has moved to the official sector. IKB estimates the volume to be at around 100 million tons per year. In Germany, IKB Industriebank expects an output in excess of 43 million tons. Turkey has recorded a growth of 13 % since January, but this is difficult to verify. Domestic demand is driven by the automotive and construction industries. Import duties also continue to have a positive effect. Southern Europe ordinary steel continues to suffer from high imports.

Development of steel prices: Although spot market prices for iron ore ex China remained largely stable on average, prices rose in the course of the month. The satisfying supply of ore hampers further price increases. Coke coal quotations increased by about $ 9/t. Following the increases of the previous months, world crude steel prices contracted slightly in the second half of November 2017. Within Europe, a reduction of 0.5 % compared to the October average was observed for hot-rolled wide strip. Despite stable zinc prices, galvanized sheet metal has fallen by 3.5 %. Wire rod remained largely stable on a monthly average. All in all, import duties have certainly helped the market somewhat, although some Eastern European suppliers tried to gain a stronger foothold. With regard to European steel prices, IKB still expects a slight decline (maximum -2 %) and prices should pick up again in February.

Aluminium production: Worldwide primary aluminium production expanded by 2.8 % by the end of October 2017. IKB expects production in 2017 to reach 60 million tons. Within four months, Chinese production was 4.6 % above the previous year's level. This growth was also attributable to the rest of Asia (+ 13.6 %). Production remained stable in Europe and declined by around 2 % in North America. The overall market in 2017 is likely to register a small supply deficit. The worldwide demand for primary and recycled aluminium continues to be driven by the demand for lightweight construction in the automotive industry and the aviation industry. In addition, certain mechanical engineering sectors also relied on lightweight construction. The recovery of the construction industry in continental Europe and the packaging sector also stimulated demand.

Aluminium Stock levels: The inventory levels of primary aluminium at LME have continued to decline: they now stand at 1.1 million tons. At SHFE, inventory levels have increased to around 694,000 tons, with a further 44,000 tons in Comex's warehouses. This means that there is still a good stock of supplies, even though there will likely be a small supply deficit in 2017. The LME stocks of recycled alloys account for only 12,100 tons. The inventory levels correspond to the total consumption (primary and recycled aluminium) during around 9.5 days. New capacities for recycled aluminium continue to secure supplies. By the end of the first quarter of 2018, IKB expects a further reduction in stocks of primary aluminium, the threshold of 1 million tons at LME is likely to be affected.

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This article was first published by Process.

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